Bajaj Finance Analysis, Should you Buy, Sell or Hold

Bajaj Finance Analysis, Should you Buy, Sell or Hold

Bajaj Finance Analysis, Should you Buy, Sell or Hold






Bajaj Finance – Investment Analysis · April 2026


Bajaj Finance NSE: BAJFINANCE

Investment analysis · April 8, 2026 · NBFC / Financial Services

₹909.60

+4.74% today  |  52w: ₹787.90 – ₹1,102.50

Market cap

₹5.32L Cr

Large cap

P/E ratio

31.5×

vs industry ~30–35×

P/B ratio

5.7×

Premium valuation

AUM (FY26)

₹5.1L Cr

+22% YoY

1 · Fundamental analysis

Balance sheet health

Capital adequacy (CRAR)21.23%
Tier-1 capital20.54%
Gross NPA1.03%
Net NPA0.60%
Provision coverage (Stage 3)52%
Debt funding modelHigh leverage (NBFC)

Valuation snapshot

P/E (TTM)31.5×
Industry P/E range28–38×
P/B ratio5.7×
Historical P/B range4×–12×
Dividend yield0.69%
Valuation verdictFairly valued

Growth metrics (5-year trend)

Revenue (FY26)₹69,725 Cr
Revenue growth (Q3 YoY)+18.4%
Revenue growth trend19 consecutive up qtrs
Net profit (FY26)₹16,762 Cr
Q3 FY26 profit growth YoY–6.3%
Customer base119.3 Mn (+17% YoY)

Interest income / expense

NII growth (Q3 FY26 YoY)+21%
EBITDA margin72.9%
Funding mix concernDeposits ~16%
Bond issuance (Nov 2025)₹1,859 Cr NCDs
Cost of funds pressureModerate
Interest coverageLow (NBFC typical)

Shareholding pattern (latest)

Promoters (Bajaj Finserv)54.73%
FII / Foreign institutions21.45%
DII (domestic instit.)1.1%
Mutual funds9.09%
Retail public8.94%
Institutional confidenceHigh

Future growth potential

AUM target trajectory₹5.1L Cr+ (FY26)
India NBFC credit growth~18–22% projected
Product lines26 lines, 51 variants
Rural + digital expansionActive
Regulatory risk (RBI)Moderate
Broker consensusBuy (31 analysts)

2 · Technical analysis

RSI (14-day)

~32–35

Approaching oversold territory (<30)

0 (oversold)305070100 (overbought)

RSI near 30 signals the stock is becoming potentially attractive for entry — historically a contrarian buy zone.

Moving averages & trend

5-day MA₹886 — above (bullish short-term)

20-day MABelow — bearish

50-day MA₹931 — below (resistance)

200-day MA₹928 — below (resistance)

MACD–14.22 (bearish)

Overall trendBearish (short-term bounce)

Support & resistance levels

Strong support

₹788–810

52-week low zone

Current price

₹909.60

Gap-up today (+4.7%)

Key resistance

₹928–950

50-day / 200-day MA zone

3 · Investment verdict

Verdict

Cautious Buy / Accumulate on Dips

Fundamentally strong · Fairly valued · Technically recovering but below key MAs

Fundamentals

Strong

AUM +22%, NII +21%, 119M customers, Gross NPA only 1.03%. One profit dip in Q3 FY26 — watch closely.

Valuation

Fairly valued

P/E 31.5× is in-range for premium NBFC. P/B of 5.7× is elevated but justified by ~20%+ ROE history.

Strategy

SIP / Staggered entry

Avoid lump sum. SIP or buy in tranches near ₹850–880. Long-term horizon (2–3 yrs). Q4 FY26 results on Apr 29 are a key trigger.

This is educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.



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